THE BATTLE OF NEW ORLEANS
by Larry Carlson for https://texaslsn.org
The scoreboard is gonna be in for a workout. Take that bet over to Harrah's when you're in the Crescent City for the game. Might be one of those games in which the last team with the ball and forty seconds will win. Apologies in advance. But here comes one of those "Cap'n Obvious" queries. When's the last time the Longhorn football program played an elimination game? Was it back in 1814 when Andrew Jackson, Ol' Hickory himself, was busy saving New Orleans from the bloody British?
Nope. Texas has never played a postseason elimination game. So to say that the stakes are high...well, duh.
Going in, we don't even know who all is about to play their last game for the Horns.
And it has nothing to do with the portal or the NFL draft. So there has to be some extra juice coursing through the veins of notables such as Xavier Worthy, JT Sanders, Adonai Mitchell and Quinn Ewers. Those guys and absolute seniors including T'Vondre Sweat, Byron Murphy, Jaylan Ford and Jordan Whittington have a must-win situation to set up what would then be the game of their young lives.
I'm confident Texas can put up 35 points or more. But can the Horns outscore the Huskies? I think UT matches up better against Bama, and especially with Michigan, than it does against Washington. Michael Penix Jr is the nation's best passer. His front line is second best in sacks allowed, among the 133 D-I teams. That doesn't play well into what is generally acknowledged as the Horns' most vulnerable position group, the secondary. Slants have sliced the Texas D all season and big plays via long passes have also connected too often. That has to worry defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski.
Here's the thing, though. Washington has not faced a defensive front comparable to the one they'll face on New Year's night. Outland Trophy winner D'Vondre Sweat and big Byron Murphy are going to create problems for UW, whether stuffing RB Dillon Johnson or hassling Penix. And perhaps the Big XII defensive freshman of the year, Anthony Hill Jr, just might be the wildcard to push Penix out of his comfort zone.
So Texas just has to mush the Huskies for an occasional three-and-out, not give up too many explosive plays and force a couple of turnovers. Elementary.
Again, the Longhorns should be able to gash UW for plenty of points. If Quinn Ewers plays his game, he's going to pass for more than 350 yards against this crew. But the potential for Texas to be stifled is still there if the veteran O-line fails to get a push in short yardage crunch times. It is, to me, the one area in which the Longhorns have really not improved all year. The lack of reliable drive blocking has been a weakness for years. Yes, Jonathon Brooks ran for plenty of yards this season. Yes, Baxter, Blue and Red have been effective. And those NFL guys named Bijan and Roschon had room to roam while at UT. But...the holes just don't seem to get opened consistently in red zone and short yardage necessities. Dominant offenses control the line of scrimmage and force opponents to wear out, take bad angles and give cushions in the pass game. This Texas line, steady in pass protection, has rarely been dominant in the run game until the past two contests. Even then, there were gum-ups that made the going tough when it should not have been. Picky? Sure. But this is the biggest Texas game in 14 years.
Win it, UT lines up again for the program's biggest test in 14 years, just one week later.
Perhaps the biggest unknown until the game plays out has nothing to do with wince-worthy procedure penalties, quirky bounces, costly targeting penalties and DQ's and tipped-or-stripped-ball turnovers. A huge question is this: Which team is best prepared to seamlessly overcome the game day rust? It will be thirty long days since these teams last played. Neither Texas nor Washington can afford a slow start or
sputters on either side of the ball. Nobody in a Texas uniform, save Adonai Mitchell (in his Georgia playing days) has ever played after this long a layoff. So...WD-40 on Sugar?
Whatever works. This writer is forecasting an exciting 41-34 victory for UT.
